Model 2 — Economics
Risk-adjusted economics for the recommended recommended_safe topology (48 validators). All figures are CTN per year unless noted. The optimizer maximises the risk-adjusted net value — gross rewards minus every cost and risk penalty, plus the beacon-diversity bonus.
Headline
| Metric | Value |
| Gross expected annual rewards | 184.32 CTN |
| Risk-adjusted annual net value | 86.52 CTN |
| Principal required | 1,536 CTN |
| Annual infrastructure cost | $7,200 / 28.80 CTN |
| Monthly infrastructure cost | $600 / 2.40 CTN |
Waterfall (gross → net)
| Line item | CTN/yr |
| Gross expected annual rewards | +184.32 |
| − Infrastructure cost | −28.80 |
| − Capital opportunity cost | −46.08 |
| − Expected downtime penalty | −17.56 |
| − Slashing risk penalty | −1.44 |
| − Operational risk penalty | −0.96 |
| − Provider concentration penalty | −1.12 |
| − Failure-domain concentration penalty | −0.64 |
| − Operational complexity penalty | −2.40 |
| + Beacon diversity bonus | +1.20 |
| = Risk-adjusted annual net value | 86.52 |
Notes
- Capital opportunity cost (46.08 CTN) is the largest single deduction — the cost of locking the 1,536 CTN principal (48 validators × 32 CTN). This is why over-staking is not "free" and why the optimizer does not push validator count to the capital ceiling.
- Beacon diversity bonus (+1.20 CTN) rewards the all-to-all, cross-provider beacon failover design; it is the only positive adjustment besides gross rewards.
- Unsafe AWS-only layouts can post a higher raw net value because they spend less on infrastructure, but they fail required protected scenarios and are not feasible recommendations. See the Tradeoff Table.
Profile economics
| Profile | Validators | Gross CTN/yr | Net CTN/yr | Principal CTN |
| minimal_viable | 12 | 46.08 | 12.57 | 384 |
| cheaper_riskier | 45 | 172.80 | 98.36 | 1,440 |
| recommended_safe | 48 | 184.32 | 86.52 | 1,536 |
| maximum_reward_current_safety | 48 | 184.32 | 86.52 | 1,536 |
| higher_resilience | 36 | 138.24 | 54.53 | 1,152 |