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Model 2 — Scenario Matrix

Selected profile: recommended_safe. V=48, hard 2/3 finality floor = 32, preferred operational target = 35 (72%). The recommended topology survived 52 / 52 protected scenarios. Correlated scenarios listed as protected = False are evaluated for honesty but not claimed as guaranteed.

Scenario Family Protected Threshold Active Margin vs threshold Margin vs 2/3 Survived
baseline_no_failure baseline yes 35 48 13 16 yes
aws_a_down single_failure yes 35 40 5 8 yes
aws_b_down single_failure yes 35 40 5 8 yes
aws_c_down single_failure yes 35 40 5 8 yes
gcp_a_down single_failure yes 35 40 5 8 yes
gcp_b_down single_failure yes 35 40 5 8 yes
home_down single_failure yes 35 40 5 8 yes
home_internet_down single_failure yes 35 40 5 8 yes
home_power_down single_failure yes 35 40 5 8 yes
beacon_aws_a_unavailable beacon_dependency yes 35 48 13 16 yes
beacon_aws_b_unavailable beacon_dependency yes 35 48 13 16 yes
beacon_aws_c_unavailable beacon_dependency yes 35 48 13 16 yes
beacon_gcp_a_unavailable beacon_dependency yes 35 48 13 16 yes
beacon_gcp_b_unavailable beacon_dependency yes 35 48 13 16 yes
beacon_home_unavailable beacon_dependency yes 35 48 13 16 yes
vc_aws_a_unavailable single_failure yes 35 40 5 8 yes
vc_aws_b_unavailable single_failure yes 35 40 5 8 yes
vc_aws_c_unavailable single_failure yes 35 40 5 8 yes
vc_gcp_a_unavailable single_failure yes 35 40 5 8 yes
vc_gcp_b_unavailable single_failure yes 35 40 5 8 yes
vc_home_unavailable single_failure yes 35 40 5 8 yes
full_aws_a_unavailable beacon_dependency yes 35 48 13 16 yes
full_aws_b_unavailable beacon_dependency yes 35 48 13 16 yes
full_aws_c_unavailable beacon_dependency yes 35 48 13 16 yes
full_gcp_a_unavailable beacon_dependency yes 35 48 13 16 yes
full_gcp_b_unavailable beacon_dependency yes 35 48 13 16 yes
full_home_unavailable beacon_dependency yes 35 48 13 16 yes
aws_a_down_plus_home_unavailable critical_double yes 32 32 0 0 yes
aws_b_down_plus_home_unavailable critical_double yes 32 32 0 0 yes
aws_c_down_plus_home_unavailable critical_double yes 32 32 0 0 yes
aws_a_down_plus_gcp_a_unavailable critical_double yes 32 32 0 0 yes
aws_a_down_plus_gcp_b_unavailable critical_double yes 32 32 0 0 yes
aws_b_down_plus_gcp_a_unavailable critical_double yes 32 32 0 0 yes
aws_b_down_plus_gcp_b_unavailable critical_double yes 32 32 0 0 yes
aws_c_down_plus_gcp_a_unavailable critical_double yes 32 32 0 0 yes
aws_c_down_plus_gcp_b_unavailable critical_double yes 32 32 0 0 yes
aws_a_down_plus_beacon_aws_b_unavailable critical_double yes 32 40 8 8 yes
aws_b_down_plus_beacon_aws_c_unavailable critical_double yes 32 40 8 8 yes
aws_c_down_plus_beacon_aws_a_unavailable critical_double yes 32 40 8 8 yes
home_unavailable_plus_beacon_aws_a_unavailable critical_double yes 32 40 8 8 yes
two_aws_regions_down_ab critical_double yes 32 32 0 0 yes
two_aws_regions_down_ac critical_double yes 32 32 0 0 yes
two_aws_regions_down_bc critical_double yes 32 32 0 0 yes
aws_a_down_plus_remote_vc_partition_from_aws_beacons critical_double yes 32 40 8 8 yes
aws_b_down_plus_remote_vc_partition_from_aws_beacons critical_double yes 32 40 8 8 yes
aws_c_down_plus_remote_vc_partition_from_aws_beacons critical_double yes 32 40 8 8 yes
aws_a_down_plus_gcp_a_beacon_unavailable critical_double yes 32 40 8 8 yes
aws_b_down_plus_gcp_b_beacon_unavailable critical_double yes 32 40 8 8 yes
gcp_a_and_gcp_b_unavailable critical_double yes 32 32 0 0 yes
aws_network_degradation_remote_to_aws_beacons correlated yes 35 48 13 16 yes
gcp_provider_wide_failure correlated yes 32 32 0 0 yes
all_aws_beacon_endpoints_unavailable correlated yes 35 48 13 16 yes

Residual / correlated risks (evaluated, not claimed protected)

These cannot be solved by validator placement — they require client diversity and deploy discipline, not more nodes.

Scenario Family Threshold Active Margin Result
aws_provider_wide_failure correlated 32 24 −8 finality lost
bad_config_deployed_to_all_aws_core_nodes correlated 32 24 −8 finality lost
shared_cl_client_bug correlated 32 0 −32 liveness lost
shared_el_client_bug correlated 32 0 −32 liveness lost
bad_config_deployed_to_all_nodes correlated 32 0 −32 liveness lost